The Rate Gap

Everyone needs capital now; it's not just the huge dislocation the economy has endured the last two and a half years either, it's that just about about everything we need to run a business and our personal lives has been dramatically re-priced.

The adjustments in pricing aren't always to the upside. For example, lumber prices are crashing but that's not good for those businesses who loaded up on extra supplies when the prices were exploding higher. They now have capital tied up in inventory whose price us "underwater".

Some trucking and transportation costs are also crashing while others, containers from China for example are still prohibitively high causing pricing confusion at all stages of the supply line daisy chain.

One would think that with demand for capital at an all time high you would see the entire spectrum of interest rates and factor rates higher buy you'd be wrong. Why?

The best explanation I have is the pre-existing rate-gap between conventional rates and those offered by private lenders for commercial working capital - The bank rates are determined by the suits in Washington; private rates are determined by ACTUAL supply & demand (plus risk factors).

While the Fed has recently increased rates more than 50% which looks like a brutal increase, it's actually not nearly enough to cover the inflation rate which just keeps rising. The official CPI is a joke - the actual CPI is closer to 18% and EVERYONE KNOWS IT. It's not rocket science to understand that demand will fall as prices increase so that's why we're seeing rates in the private sector go down while the Fed acts like it's "battling" inflation (with rates that aren't even close to what is needed).

Consumers are being crushed:

"Instead of drawing on their emergency savings funds, many Americans would have to go into debt to foot an unexpected $1,000 bill, either by asking family and friends for a loan, taking a personal loan from a bank or charging a credit card."

Meanwhile, private lenders are flush with capital to lend but facing decreased demand even though factor rates for revenue funding's are down considerably - average factor rates are now between 1.16-1.25 down from 1.24-1.36 (1st position funding.)

I believe what we're witnessing is the unraveling of the supported and manipulated interest rate markets which have artificially held down conventional rates for over a decade leading to the melt-up in pricing for just about every asset class there is. That is coming apart fast and the Fed acts like it trying to put out a 5-alarm blaze with a squirt gun.

"The Census Bureau reported that sales of new single-family houses have plunged 17% from a year ago, and are just barely above the lockdown low of April 2020."

For any business that qualifies, capital is available now at better terms than in the last 5 years giving an advantage to higher credit-quality companies.

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