The great unwind has begun

On this Father's Day I remember something my own father used to say: "If you don't watch where you're going you'll end up right where you're headed!"

That's exactly where we are right now; where we were all headed 6-12 ago. If I extrapolate the last few months out to the next 6-12 months suffice to say we all had better get our s**t together fast and to the degree possible.

For the last six months I've been recommending to borrow fixed-rate capital and use it to purchase supplies and materials in order to maintain margins. The idea was to buy more than usual but earn higher profits since prices are increasing. Many of you did that like many of my Roofing and Manufacturing clients did resulting in better margins and quicker lead times.

Things have now changed and boy have they changed fast! The two biggest components of consumers' budgets have been hit with huge, sudden increases: Gas and mortgage payments.

I won't belabor the point but I did warn my readers last year this was going to happen. In February my blog post titled "The Other Shoe" covered the impeding rate increases which have just recently added on average $800 per month in increased cost to owning a home mortgage. In the post titled: "How to survive the stagflationary crisis" I explained exactly what we're experiencing today: Higher cost of living while incomes decrease or remain stagnant - stagflation.

Now something else I warned you about is headed our way - digital currencies. Make no mistake; they're coming and it' not good.

NEW - Powell: "Rapid changes are taking place in the global monetary system that may affect the international role of the dollar."A US central bank digital currency is being examined to "help the US dollar's international standing."

Digital currencies will have zero privacy - every transaction will be monitored. No security - every purchase or donation will be scrutinized and "your" money can be frozen (stolen) by the state for (fill in the blank) infractions. Oh and, just for fun, the Fed can give the new digital dollar an expiration date - that is, use it by (whenever we say) or lose it. Sounds like a winner to me!!

For now we need to concentrate on how to navigate these interesting times without getting turned into pulp.

Prices are still increasing but not everywhere. Lumber for example has crashed 50% (from a very high number) due to housing purchases slowing but plumbing PVC supplies are exploding higher because they're made with Oil. Each business owner will need to use their own intuition when making a decision to use borrowed working capital.

The past shows us the way. There are certain trades and businesses that continue to do well even in the worst of times. First, we need to understand how our trade environment will change before we can succeed within it." - Brandon Smith

Here are some of the areas where business owners can focus their efforts and prosper in the coming months and years:

Communications -

Natural Resource Procurement -

Repurposed Goods -

Household products and comforts -

Home Heating -

Home Healthcare -

Security -

See how much you qualify for

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