"I told you so"

Nobody likes the guy who says " I told you so" because it sucks to be wrong and having someone who happened to be right rub it in sucks even worse!

The fact is that the official narrative of,well, just about everything regarding the economy has been dead wrong. So wrong in fact one really has to wonder how can the "experts" be so consistently wrong and still be the ones who offer guidance let alone make policy.

I ascribe to a different theory which is that the Federal Reserve knows exactly what it is doing and what the disastrous results will be of raising interest rates right into a scorching recession and exploding the "everything bubble" on purpose. As proof I submit the words of our current Federal Reserve President, Jerome Powell:

“…I think we are actually at a point of encouraging risk-taking, and that should give us pause. Investors really do understand now that we will be there to prevent serious losses. It is not that it is easy for them to make money but that they have every incentive to take more risk, and they are doing so. Meanwhile, we look like we are blowing a fixed-income duration bubble right across the credit spectrum that will result in big losses when rates come up down the road. You can almost say that that is our strategy.” – Jerome Powell 2012

So, the top guy in charge now said on record ten years ago that this would happen and now he's the one executing the plan - I don't really understand how this never makes the news.

"This leads us to the final question – What happens next?

That’s easy to answer: The fed continues to hike rates well into next year and will not reverse course or capitulate and return to stimulus. The dovish predictions were wrong. The people that said the Fed would not raise rates were wrong. The people that said the Fed would never remove support from stock markets were wrong. This process is ongoing and the effects will grow as the months pass, but those that were hoping for a manic return to the days of bailouts and QE are going to be deeply disappointed."

Today we saw another 75 basis point increase - more are coming. They said so.

I'm concerned about how this policy will play out for the small business community which is in a perfect storm of both decreasing economic activity and increasing tax audits courtesy of the 87,000 new IRS agents just authorized who will certainly be spending all their time auditing the 800 or so billionaires to ensure they're paying their "fair share" (sarcasm).

There is some certainty in this un-certainty; I mean that some actions have predictable re-actions. For example many of your competitors will fail leaving under-served clients which will benefit your business. Quality employees will suddenly become available and equipment/supplies & materials will be available at fire-sale prices.

Whoever is most prepared will survive and even thrive that's why it's OK to listen to the guy who says "I told you so" even if he's kind of an a** lol!

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